Showing posts with label 320. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 320. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Followup on BAE - EASD Merger...

...which appears won't be happening.

Per the Financial Times:
Government officials in London, Paris and Berlin blamed each other for not backing the €36bn tie-up between BAE Systems, the UK’s defence champion, and EADS, Europe’s biggest civil aerospace group, while investors accused BAE of having a muddled strategy that threatened shareholder value. 
An opinion piece in the Economist blames it on Germany (EADS ownership is complex; a large portion is controlled by Daimler).  And, the BBC has a very nice summary of the whole deal.

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

List of Global Brands Keeps Coke on Top, and Apple Jumps Up

 

From the New York Times:

List of Global Brands Keeps Coke on Top, and Apple Jumps Up

Just a quick thought or so --

The sidebar to the left shows the 2012, 2011 and 2010.  Note that Apple jumped way up and Nokia fell like the proverbial rock.

If you go to the actual survey (link in the NYT article and here), you'll notice the presence of a number of luxury brands:

17.  Louis Vuitton
38.  Gucci
63.  Hermés
68.  Cartier (here's the Cartier commercial from the evening class)
70. Tiffany & Co.
84.  Prada

Remember where the growth for these brands is?  If you said China, you'd be right. 

Gucci on growth in China (video)

China’s rich feeds luxury brands and tourism in Europe

The Top 50 Most-Searched for Luxury Brands in China.

That is all.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

CIVETS, Part 2 (South Africa)

We're not going in strict order here; South Africa is actually the last on the CIVETS list.

In general, we're all a lot more positive about Africa these days.  Article after article after article talks about Africa's vast untapped consumer market, a growing middle class (incomes between $2 and $20 per day) now able to afford more -- life insurance, Danone yogurt, basmati rice (imported from India),Heineken-brewed cassava beer and cosmetics from Avon, all paid for with mobile banking.

Monday, September 17, 2012

The CIVETS are coming. Meow?



A civet looks out of undergrowth.
Picture from http://www.cdc.gov/animalimportation/civets.html


"Meow" might be the wrong word here, since a civet isn't (technically speaking) a cat.

It's actually a member of the same order (Carnivora) as both cats and dogs, but the civets belong to the Viverridae family (as opposed to cats, whose family is Felidae).  I know you really needed to know that. 

It it worth noting, though, that the civet's natural range is in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia.

Ok.  The CIVETS countries are:

Columbia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Egypt
Turkey
South Africa

So, the theme for this week is the CIVETS, one country at a time.

First of all, the term CIVETS was invented (by British bank HSBC) as a follow-up to the BRIC grouping.  Not the Big Economies, but the smaller, "second generation emerging markets characterized by dynamic, rapidly changing economies and young, growing populations."

It's become fairly common usage; for example, there's a S & P CIVETS Index
 
One article did say that CIVETS is an artificial cluster, unlike BRIC, which really were set to be the next Big Economies.  As one writer put it, "It sort of makes you wonder if Vietnam was added to provide a needed letter."

In any case, artificial or not, let's look at the CIVETS.

Columbia

The first CIVET is Columbia.  How does it look on the numbers?

Columbia's GDP is in the $4 billion neighborhood (#29 world-wide), and growing at 5.9% (2011).  Where is this GDP coming from?  According to one source (the source for all other numbers not otherwise attributed), Columbia's major exports are petroleum, coal, emeralds, coffee, nickel, cut flowers, bananas, and apparel.  In other words, its economy is based on natural resources, agriculture, and (in last place), low-tech manufacturing.

Moreover, Columbia does not appear to be investing in their future.  Gross fixed investment (in income-producing assets) is at 23% of GDP.  To put this in perspective, Belarus is spending almost 40%, Vietnam almost 35%.

I can't determine whether or not there's capital flight going on here (which is what Argentina's been battling for years), but I did find one article talking about FDI flowing out of Columbia -- $20 billion from 200 to 2010.

Official sources claim that FDI flowing into Columbia is increasing, but even that source admits that most of the FDI is coming from oil and mining.

What does your future economy look like?  What are you investing today?

So maybe it's the demographics.  Median age is 28.3 years.  That's right in the ballpark for developing economies (for example, Indonesia is 28.5 years, Brazil is 29.6 years).  This is ok, but nothing special.

Columbia's population is 75% urbanized, which matters, because urban residents shop more, driving domestic consumption (for a discussion of this phenomenon in China, see this report).  Again, not bad.  Indonesia's 44% urbanized, Peru's at 77%.

If the CIVETS are the economies of the future, what else is being done to invest in that future.  Literacy is 90.4% and average educational attainment is 14 years.  Public spending on education is 4.7% (World Bank numbers), which puts Columbia right in line with Nepal (4.7%) and Rwanda (5%).  In contrast, (and more to the point), Brazil spends 5.7% and Costa Rica is at 6.3%.  You'd think that if you were interested in economic growth, you'd invest in education.   Columbia isn't really low, but nor is it inordinately high.

So, then, why Columbia?  Per the Wall Street Journal:

Colombia is emerging as an attractive destination for investors. Improved security measures have led to a 90% decline in kidnappings and a 46% drop in the murder rate over the past decade...


A 90% decline in kidnappings.  I don't want to joke about what is a serious issue, but that doesn't strike me as the strongest recommendation out there.

Another source cites Columbia's "pro-business government."  Well, governments change.

During the 1990s, foreign investment was pouring into Argentina, under the government of President Carlos Menem (1989-1999).  That slowed in the Argentine financial crisis in the late 1990s, and under current president Cristina Fernández , nationalization is the order of the day.

And, Columbia has some internal governance issues.  President Santos is currently preparing for Formal Diplomatic Talks with an outfit called FARC (The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia). FARC is politically left-wing and has long financed their operations by kidnapping and drug trafficking (though they claim to have given up kidnapping for ransom).

So, than, why not Venezuela?  The numbers are comparable or better (economic and demographic). 

Venezuela already exports oil; Columbia is in the beginning stages.  And, by the way, FARC just loves to take out oil pipelines....

Our problem with Venezuela -- Hugo Chávez.  However, as we've said, governments change, and we know (or suspect) that  Mr. Chávez is probably not too much longer for this world (though nobody knows for sure).

So am I dismissing Columbia?  No.  Just that there are other attractive Latin American countries in addition to Columbia.  Brazil we aren't counting here as up-and-coming, but I've also heard positive reports about Panama and Costa Rica.  Smaller countries, smaller economies than Columbia, but with growth potential.

Next up....South Africa.

Friday, September 14, 2012

"More saving. More doing." But, "nothing doing" in China.

From today's Financial Times -- Home Depot Shuts Big Box Stores in China.

According to the article, Chinese customers are less likely to be interested in do-it-yourself (DIY) home improvements (since many workers are migrant workers).  But, reasons don't matter.  Chinese consumers aren't just that into DIY.

According to Home Depot:
"Closing stores is always a difficult decision," said chairman & CEO, The Home Depot. "We are thankful for the dedicated service of our store associates in China, and we wish them all the best during this transition."

While it is closing its big box stores, The Home Depot is maintaining a new formats team to continue research and development activities. In addition, the Company is maintaining two recently-opened specialty stores - a paint and flooring store and a Home Decorators Collection store, both located in - and is in the beginning stages of developing relationships with several of China's leading e-commerce websites, a combination which the Company believes is more tailored to Chinese customers' needs and shopping preferences.

"We've learned a great deal over the last six years in China, and our new approach leverages that experience and reflects our continuing interest in providing value to Chinese customers, as well as our shareholders," said Blake.
 
My favorite part is the last paragraph. "Our new approach leverages that experience..."  Where I come from, they call that "learning from your mistakes."  But, I do loathe and despise business buzzwords.

That is all for today.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Back to Black?

In both 320 sections, we've recently been talking about bribery, with some reference to the 2003-2006 scandal involving BAE Systems (British Aerospace Engineering) and Saudi Arabia, with a supporting cast of a large flock of fighter jets, a pink airplane, a peacock-blue Rolls-Royce, and numerous sports cars.

Although there was some speculation that BAE chairman Sir Dick Evans and his high degree of cross-cultural awareness played a part in securing the Saudi contract.

Well, BAE is in the news again.  There's a proposed merger between BAE and EADS (European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company).  Per the Financial Times:
Both companies are aiming to reach an agreement by October 10, according to two people familiar with the deal talks. BAE and EADS executives wanted to decide “whether this thing will fly or not” by that date, although the deadline could be pushed back if necessary, one of these people said.


Some Background

Both companies are defence contractors (that is, weapons manufacturers), although only about a third of EADS revenues are military (EADS includes Airbus, which is civilian aircraft).

The Economist quick update on the arms business

EADS is a Dutch company, with a complex ownership structure that includes the German, French and Spanish governments and Daimler and worldwide operations (including China and Brazil). 

BAE is British owned and  deals primarily with the UK and other English-speaking countries (US and Australia), with significant interests in India and Saudi Arabia.

The Merger

According, again, to the Financial Times, the motivation behind this is mutual benefit.  BAE has a significant presence in the US defence market (which is almost half of the world's defence spending), allowing the EADS / BAE combination to take on Boeing.  And, if military markets dry up (though plans would be to expand into additional lines of military hardware), EADS has Airbus, which is civilian aircraft.

However, nobody else -- shareholders, governments, employees, labor unions, and the lady that pushes the food trolley on the Hogwarts Express -- likes the idea.

More later....

The US Reaction

Here's the New York Times coverage; from the comments, it appears that US observers are worried about the potential power and size of the mergerd firm.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Why Ireland ?

The short 60 Minutes clip we watched today gave the impression that US high-tech and pharmaceutical companies had located facilities in Ireland just because of US corporate taxes.  And, as you were leaving, I recall saying that there's more to it than that.  Well, there is more to it than just taxes.

I did a little investigation and found out that:
  • Yes, there is a 10% corporate tax rate
  • In the early 2000's, Ireland passed a number of "technology-friendly" laws (such as digital signatures).
  • Ireland is the only English-speaking euro-zone country
  • General government pro-business attitude
  • High quality workforce
And, Ireland has become a major location for pharmaceutical companies, including firms from places other than the US, including Switzerland.  The Irish government has put a good deal of money into making Ireland attractive, including $80 million + into higher education and research in biotech. 

Pharmaceuticals in Ireland is a perfect example of Michael Porter's clusters (the evening class talked about this Monday night and the day class will get here in early October).  For even more details, refer to this report from Deutsche Bank.


Oh, and Cisco?  It really isn't just about the taxes.  A few recent examples:

Cisco announces 115 Galway jobs (April 2012)
Tech giant Cisco to expand Irish operation (January 2012)

Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Some interesting reading

I ran across this today, from the (UK) Financial Times.  It's a blog dedicated to what we call "emerging markets" or "poorer countries."

Remeber that shorthand here -- BRIC, or Brazil, Russia, India and China, or the economies of the 21st century.

A few interesting posts:

Sina and Tencent: dark clouds and silver linings (microblogging in China).  Also, the Economist article on why Chinese and Japanese are such good languages for microblogging.

Filling a Gap in South Africa (clothing retailing)

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

"Avon Calling"

Avon, at one time perhaps the best known of the direct-sales companies, has fallen on hard times.

According to one article:

Avon Products Inc reported weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results as sales slid in every market except Latin America and the company saw a 3 percent drop in the number of representatives who sell its cosmetics directly to consumers.

This reflects drops in sales overall.  Of interest is that only about 20% of their sales (per the 2010 annual report) are from North America.  Two of their biggest markets -- Brazil and Russia (as per the annual report) are markets where Avon has taken a hit.

In the case of Brazil, Avon claims that computer problems (specifically, a "legacy system") are the reason for the sales drop there.  Shouldn't Avon have anticipated problems with an outdated computer system and addressed that much earlier?

In the case of Russia, Avon blames "agressive pricing" from competitors.  Ok.  You compete on one of two things -- price or quality.  If Avon isn't the cheapest brand, should they not position themselves as at least a brand of choice?  Could be on product quality, customer service, whatever, but something that will convince Russian women that, while Avon may not be the least expensive, it's the best value for the money.

It's something to remember.  A company can make a lot of mistakes in going international -- ignoring cultural differences, etc. -- but it's also possible to do things right in the international sense and still just not do a good job of running a business.

Maybe this is why Avon CEO Andrea Jung is looking for a new job.

Monday, February 06, 2012

Mexico party selects first woman presidential candidate (via BBC)

The Mexican voters choose a new president in July of this year (when the US political parties are just settling on their nominees). 

Current president Felipe Calderón is not eligible for a second term (Mexico's presidents are limited to a single six-year term).  He chose as his successor Ernesto Cordero (who was, up until September of 2011, the finance minister).

However, the PAN (National Action Party) did not agree, and chose a different candidate.  The current nominee of the PAN is Josefina Vazquez Mota , who was formerly the education minister. 

According to the BBC, though:
Opinion polls place her some distance behind the current frontrunner, Enrique Pena Nieto, the candidate of the party which ruled Mexico for more than 70 years, the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party).  
And, it is most likely that the next president will be Enrique Peña Nieto from the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party). 
The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled Mexico for 71 years until 2000, leads the pack and looks set to return under the slick candidacy of Enrique Peña Nieto, a former governor of Mexico’s most populous state.  
However, there’s been some corruption corruption associated with Mr. Peña Nieto:  
It was a mere $1.8 million, stuffed as brand new bills into two suitcases on a small jet travelling from the drug-raddled state of Veracruz to the home town of the man likely to be Mexico's next president.  Suspicious? Officers from Mexico's Attorney-General's office confiscated the money last weekend during a search of the plane, which landed in Toluca, capital of the state of Mexico. They arrested the two men transporting the cash, who said they were Veracruz officials but could not present any paperwork on where the money came from.  As rumours and speculation swirled, officials in the government of Veracruz acknowledged the money (25 million pesos) was theirs. They said they'd sent it to a publicity agency to pay for promotions for a carnival.  

It happens in the US, too.

It happens in France.

It happens in Australia.

It happens in the UK, though it's been illegal since 1275...

AND because Elections ought to be free, the King commandeth upon great Forfeiture, that [no Man] by Force of Arms, nor by Malice, or menacing, shall disturb any to make free Election.

Thursday, February 02, 2012

NYSE Euronext merger with Deutsche Boerse blocked by EU (BBC News)

This is a very appropriate news item, for us at least. On the agenda for tomorrow (Friday) is a discussion of economic and legal systems.

Today's business climate is one of mergers and acquisitions, though those mergers don't always meet with the approval of governments interested in enforcing antitrust laws (see here for a brief refresher on antitrust).

In class, we'll take a look at Microsoft and their troubles in the EU.

The BBC article deals with a proposed merger that's been going on for a while now. Like a lot of these, it goes beyond the merely complex.

NYSE Euronext is a merger (dating back to 2007 or so) of the New York Stock Exchange and Euronext, which was itself a merger of a number of European exchanges (not, however, including either London or Frankfort).

At one point, Deutsche Börse (Germany, based in Frankfort) wanted to buy Euronext, but was beaten out by the NYSE.

So, in early 2011, Deutsche Börse decided that they were going to acquire NYSE Euronext. At the time, the expectation was that the merger would happen fairly quickly. Per a Wall Street Journal article from a year ago:




A deal could be announced as early as next week, according to people familiar with the situation, though a host of regulatory challenges await on both sides of the Atlantic, according to competition experts.
Well, the deal isn't going to go through. The European Commission announced yesterday that the merger would violate EU antitrust provisions.

But, the US didn't have a problem with the merger, approving it in December of 2011.

The difference between the EU and the US is that EU regulators appear to be somewhat more aggressive in their enforcement of antitrust. For example:



The day after blocking the merger of NYSE Euronext (NYX) and Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1), the European Union’s antitrust chief vowed to veto other deals that hamper competition. The EU will continue to block deals “whenever necessary,”
Joaquin Almunia said in prepared remarks for a speech in Brussels today.

So, what does this all mean? There will most likely be additional consolidations in the world's markets; the London Metal Exchange is looking to be bought out soon. It does mean that, as a company looking to raise money in the equities market, that there'll be less choice as to where to list one's stock. Does that matter? In reading through the EU's press release on the NYSE Euronext / Deutsche Börse merger, they keep saying "competition is good," but it's not clear just why competition among financial marketplaces is a good thing.

Ok. Having nothing else to do, I decided to see if I could find out why. What I found was a very long and complex paper written by academic economists in 1998. I ran out of steam on about page 6 (out of 50), but if I'm reading this right, there's no good economic reason for a lot of competition. Also, prior to a single European currency and increased cross-border ownership of securtities, most world exchanges were already monopolies within their countries:



The presence of many exchanges in reality is not incompatible with this view, as exchanges were not competing with one another, at least in Europe, until a decade ago, due to different regulations and currencies that let them be monopolist in their relevant markets. In fact, in each country, either only one exchange existed or only one was dominant and absorbed the small regional ones (as in France, Italy, Spain, and Germany).
Today's story has been widely reported, but the more I think about it, the impact on businesses in general will most likely be a limited one. It's still an interesting story, especially when you look at the history behind it.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Aging Japan

According to an article in yesterday's Washington Post, Japan is undergoing a demographic crisis:







Japan’s population of 128 million will shrink by one-third and seniors will account for 40 percent of people by 2060, placing a greater burden on a smaller working-age population to support the social security and tax systems.




The article goes on to say that, by 2060, the retired (that is, not working) proportion of the population will reach 40%. The Japanese government is proposing tax increases to fund these looming pension liabilities, but faces parlimentary opposition in doing so. And, the standard retirement age is 60.



It isn't just an issue of money, though. The number of nursing homes and the avialability of caretakers are an issue as well. It's to the point where the Japanese are developing robots that can move patients, help the elderly dress, and, most frighteningly of all, provide companionship:







Scientists have invented therapeutic robotic babies that are intended to make life easier for nursing home residents. These Babyloids are being tested in facilities across Japan. During the tests, residents interact with the robots in eight-minute intervals for a total of 90 minutes each day. Designed to resemble infants, these robots simulate human emotions such as crying. This in turn tends to trigger a response among actual people. So far, the Babyloids are showing early promise at reducing depression and despair among residents.




And, this is in a retiree population that, having lost the personal ties from work, is already lonely.




There is, though an argument that the falling birthrate in Japan is an unintended consequence of a deliberate and rational decision on the part of the Japanese. To quote at length from the New York Times:







Take, for instance, how Western observers have viewed Japan’s demographics. The population is getting older because of a low birthrate, a characteristic Japan shares with many of the world’s richest nations. Yet this is presented not only as a critical problem but as a policy failure. It never seems to occur to Western commentators that the Japanese both individually and collectively have chosen their demographic fate — and have good reasons for doing so.




The story begins in the terrible winter of 1945-6, when, newly bereft of their empire, the Japanese nearly starved to death. With overseas expansion no longer an option, Japanese leaders determined as a top priority to cut the birthrate. Thereafter a culture of small families set in that has continued to the present day.




Japan’s motivation is clear: food security. With only about one-third as much arable land per capita as China, Japan has long been the world’s largest net food importer. While the birth control policy is the primary cause of Japan’s aging demographics, the phenomenon also reflects improved health care and an increase of more than 20 years in life expectancy since 1950.




The demographic trends in the EU and the US are not dissimilar. However, the participation of women in the paid labor force in the EU has room to increase, and in both the US and the EU, immigration (documented or otherwise) is another safety valve.




Despite the problems of issues in Japan, I'd rather be old in Japan than in China, where for all but the very rich, "nursing home" translates as "snake pit" or "hellhole."

Monday, January 30, 2012

Russia's Future (or at least guesses about it)

Russia. Over the last few weeks, we've seen a fair amount of discussion as to Vladimir Putin's political future.

A brief recap. Mr. Putin served two terms as President of Russia (2000-2008). In the Russian system, the President is the one with the power and the Prime Minister is a figurehead. However, when Mr. Putin finished his second term in 2008, he was not eligible for re-election, so the new President was Dmitry Medvedev. Mr. Putin moved to the office of Prime Minister, but it's been pretty generally accepted that it's Mr. Medvedev who is the true figurehead here.

The current Russian constitution prohibits two consecutive terms, but additional non-consecutive terms are fine. So, Mr. Putin is running for re-election as President this year. Mr. Medvedev's future is unknown but not likely to be a glowing one. According to the Moscow Times,




As for Medvedev — who at one point was branded with the tag "pitiful" on Twitter — analysts said his political future is anything but certain. "President Dmitry Medvedev is worse than a lame duck, he's a dead duck," said Nikolai Petrov, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Ok. Back to Mr. Putin. At one point, he looked like a sure thing for re-election. However, he's lost a lot of popularity recently. This week-end there were protests in Moscow (the symbol appears to be white ribbons or balloons). But, this sentiment in Moscow and among the bloggers does not appear to be universal. Mr. Putin doesn't have any credible opposition, and he's at least a known quantity. Per the New York Times,




“Tell Putin to fulfill all of his promises, not just half of them,” said Sergei V. Verkhososov, 34, a mechanic from the nearby industrial town of Nizhny Tagil, who was bused in for the afternoon by his employer. “He needs to think about the future, and those people who fought for him. Take these words to him.”

.......

“In Moscow they insulted me, they insulted everyone who works honestly for the sake of the motherland,” Igor Kholmansky, a worker at a plant that makes train cars and tanks, said from the stage. “We came here today to say that the workers of the Urals are for stability, for Putin and for Russia.”


There does seem to be little question (right now, at least) that Mr. Putin will win re-election, though he's unlikely to regain the popularity from his first two terms. Bear in mind two things. First, Russia has a tradition of autocratic leadership. As an autocrat, Mr. Putin is following right in the footsteps of Ivan the Terrible and Josef Stalin. Second. It may be an urban legend, but the same Josef Stalin is popularly quoted as saying "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes."

As a commentator for Forbes put it, Mr. Putin will be re-elected, but let's not mistake this for democracy:



His December 15 response to charges of corruption displays his chutzpah. The Russian people do not need democracy, he assured viewers. He (purportedly among the world’s richest men) personally will ferret out and punish those who are corrupt. As an example, he accused a former cabinet member – now a lonely member of the opposition — of corruption.

In a remarkable display of double-talk, Putin dismissed bloggers and demonstrators: “If the people show their trust in me with the highest office of president, I will conditionally work in their interests. Whether I have this trust or not is not revealed on internet sites or demonstrations. In a democratic society, trust is shown only in voting. If I see that there is not such support I would not stay one day longer in office (polite applause).”

Mr. Putin faces a number of challeneges in his third term (assuming that you, too, read "challlenge" as "a big problem that nobody knows how to solve, so it's dumped on your lap"). First, there's Russia's economic future. Recently, Mr. Putin announced that he believes that Russia's economic future depends on taking the currency earned from oil and gas exports and using that to build a modern economy. In an article, written by Mr Putin and published this past weekend (and much commented on), he says:




Noting that “more than a quarter of Russia’s GDP is a result of the sale of gas, oil, metals, timber and other natural resources or primary commodities,” Putin admitted that “Russia depends on the world economy…more than most other countries do.”

..........

“Having an economy that does not guarantee stability, sovereignty, or decent prosperity is unacceptable for Russia,” Putin wrote. “We need a new economy with a competitive industrial sector and infrastructure, with a developed service industry and with an effective agricultural sector – an economy, operating on a modern technological base.”

The second issue, perhaps not as urgent, is the nationalities question. Russia contains a large number of people who are not ethnically Russian and not necessarily happy at being part of Russia (such as the Chechens). The Russians aren't always absolutely delighted, either.

Ok. Enough for now.

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Renault sells $4.2B stake in truck maker Volvo - Yahoo! News

Renault sells $4.2B stake in truck maker Volvo - Yahoo! News

Ok. This is where we need a handy laminated chart to figure out what's going on.

First, what Renault owned was not the automotive part of Volvo. The Chinese own that now; Ford did own it and recently sold it to the Chinese automaker Geely.

What Renault sold what their ownership in the still-Swedish-owned Volvo Truck.

Straighforward enough, you might say. Not really, because that's just the beginning of Renault's complex ownership structure.

Renault also owns 44% of Nissan. At the same time, Nissan owns 15% of Renault.

Let's bring in the Germans. I quote here directly from Renault:



"On April 17, 2010 the Renault-Nissan Alliance and Daimler AG announced a broad strategic cooperation that will enable both groups to already realize benefits quickly from a range of concrete projects as well as sharing of best practices. The two groups also announced an equity exchange that will give the Renault-Nissan Alliance a 3.1% stake in Daimler and Daimler a 3.1% in Renault and a 3.1% stake in Nissan."



Next. I'd never heard of AvtoVAZ before, but seems that they are the top Russian auto manufacturer. Renault owns 20% of AvtoVAZ.


Last but not least -- Fiat owns 35% of Chrysler.


I did find this, a chart of auto company/brand ownership, but it's from 2008, so the interest is primarily historical. It does give a nice feel for the complexity of it, though; the only problem is that it doesn't seem to pick up the 378 different auto companies in developing countries that are owned in part by one or the other of the EU-US-China-Japan-Korea cartel.


Checking with our in-house auto industry expert, Dr. Jeff Schultz -- his take is that the player to watch is Renault/Nissan, followed by Ford. He sees these two compnaies as having the best management of any of the major auto firms.









Thursday, September 02, 2010

Burger King Said to Be in Talks With Brazilian Group - NYTimes.com

In yesterday's (September 1) International Business class, we touched on the BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and Cihina -- and their growing economic power. Here's an example for you.

Burger King Said to Be in Talks With Brazilian Group - NYTimes.com

Monday, August 09, 2010

Iran and China: New Developments

For the past several years, China has worked to build trade relationships with African and Latin American countries -- Argentina, for example, as well as Sudan, Nigeria and Peru.

It's motivated (as we've discussed in the IB class) by China's growing need for raw materials -- such as recycled paper (for the cardboard boxes that Made-in-China TV is shipped in), soybeans, iron ore and gold. China has an advantage over Europe and the US here -- China isn't a former colonial power (not that the US really was a colonial power or anything, but who cares?). It's been a successful relationship. Even though Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are the biggest source of Chinese imports, China is now Brazil's largest export partner (ahead of the US); Angola, Chile, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Kazakhstan are among the countries sharing that honor.

One of the Chinese trade relationships that is currently troubling to the US is the Chinese relationship with Iran, based, of course, on oil. It goes beyond imports and exports; China has invested heavily in refineries and pipelines in Iran. Moreover, the Iranian government has proposed a system of rail links between China, Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan.

Trade sanctions (banning trade in strategic materials) against Iran have slowed, but not stopped trade between China and Iran.

What exactly can the US do here? Not much. The UN can make agreements, but China is going to act in their own interests. Neither the US nor the EU wants to see Iran with nuclear weapons, but it doesn't appear that the Chinese care.

Don't forget that the Chinese own a lot of US government debt [1]. And, the US exports a lot to China as well -- luxury products [2] such as wine and ginseng roots, but also basic raw materials, such as recycled paper and soybeans.

The batteries in my crystal ball need to be recharged, but I don't see much changing here. It's a tenuous balancing act between the EU [3] and the US, first, China second, and Iran, third. One solution might be for the US to take out Iranian nuclear facilities, making sure to give China plausible deniability. That could get very very messy, though. There's some indication that the Iranian government isn't all that stable, and changes there could very well make a peaceful solution possible. The US would probably have to concede in principle on Iran's right to peaceful nuclear use, though, which would be politically suicidal for the current administration.

Taking a broader and more long-term perspective, though, look at China's trade strategy overall.

China's motivations here are complex. At first glance, the whole point is access to resources. For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has copper, Iran has oil, Brazil has wood pulp, etc. China is also investing heavily in infrastructure development in its African and Latin American trading partners. They're thinking long-term. Remember, the Chinese are the folks who have kept track of the (more than 3 million) descendants of Confucius over a 2,500 year span.

Not everyone sees China's growing ties with Africa/Latin America to be a Big Problem; some believe that US influence in Africa is broader based and more likely to be lasting.

But, as we remeber from The Godfather, "it's only business." Trade appears to be the real motivation, with politics being only a means to an end.

It's clear that China isn't in this for their health; China cut off imports of Argentine soybean oil after Argentina imposed retaliatory tariffs in response to accusations that China is dumping textiles and kitchen appliances in the Argentine market.

Another indication that the Chinese government isn't seeing these relationships as one-sided are developments earlier with loans to Zimbabwe:

Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara says the Chinese want all loans to
be repaid before loosening its purse. According to the Mutambara the Chinese
President Hu Jintao revealed to him during a brief meeting at the World Economic
Forum in Switzerland that he considers Beijing relationship with Harare as
’business partners’ and not ’friends’.


If nothing else, the complexities of trade and politics between China and the rest of the world will give us something to think about for a very long time to come.

Notes

[1] There is some indication that Chinese purchases of US debt declined after the late 2008 economic meltdown. They still hold a lot, though by now China holds enough Treasury securities that it's probably unlikely that they could afford to unload them.

[2] Western luxury products are big in China, though most of these are imported from Europe.

[3] Europe trades a lot with China, too.

Monday, July 19, 2010

The downside of globalization

Globalization is good, right? Not necessarily. Displaced workers, easy spread of disease, for example, are two negative consequences of globalization.

In class, we discuss the impact of globalization on women, specifically, that there's some evidence that women in more globalized countries tend to do better, in terms of access to health care and education, legal rights, etc.

However, I don't think it's a simple relationship. More globalized countries are also richer countries, an.d maybe it's just that women do better in countries where there are more resources available.

MIDEAST: Women Migrant Workers With HIV Get Raw Deal - IPS ipsnews.net

BBC News - Mothers tempted to abandon babies in Moscow

Human Trafficking in Europe a 2.4 Billion Euro Industry UN Dispatch

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

New Trial Begins for Jailed Russian Tycoon

Mikhail Khodorkovsky's trial opened today in Moscow, though it's not entirely clear what the purpose of the trial is. No, actually, the purpose is quite clear. Khodorkovsky was formerly the head of the Russian oil company Yukos. And,

Khodorkovsky, at one point estimated by Forbes magazine to hold a $15 billion fortune, built Yukos into Russia's largest oil company and defied the Kremlin by publicly criticizing its policies and lending financial support to opposition groups critical of then-President Vladimir Putin.

That puts it all together, doesn't it?

Khodorkovsky was originally arrested in 2003 on charges of tax evasion (shocking, isn't it?), tried and sentenced, in 2005, to a nine year prison term, to be served in Siberia (a long Russian tradition). He's been brought back to Moscow to face additional charges, presumably to ensure that he stays in Siberia permanently, where he can work in the prison garment factory.

If you's like to show your support for Mr. Khodorkovsky, you can visit his webpage, though you'll need to speak Russian to do so (sorry, there is an English version).

More on Mr. Khodorkovsky from Frontline
Why Skilled Immigrants Are Leaving the U.S.

Immigration, legal or illegal, has been a political hot button in recent years. Now, it seems, many immigrants are returning home -- unfortunately, these folks are the people that the US needs to keep.

There's no question but that innovation is the key to creating and sustaining competitive advantage, whether its on the level of the individual, the organization and the country (and if this doesn't compute, flip back in your notes to Michael Porter). What appears, though, to be happening, as described in this article, is that highly skilled individuals, often from India and China, are returning home and taking their skills with them. The article puts it quite simply:

The U.S. is no longer the only land of opportunity. If we don't want the immigrants who have fueled our innovation and economic growth, they now have options elsewhere.

So, where does this leave the US economy. Well, again, I think it's pretty simple. People such as:
  • Vinod Khosla (one of the founders of Sun Microsystems)
  • Arun Netravali (Bell Labs and Lucent)
  • C.K Prahalad (Distingiushed Professor of Management at the University of Michigan)
  • Roger Y. Tsien (2008 Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry and professor at the University of California - San Diego)

aren't the people that we need to pack up and leave the US.