Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Followup on BAE - EASD Merger...

...which appears won't be happening.

Per the Financial Times:
Government officials in London, Paris and Berlin blamed each other for not backing the €36bn tie-up between BAE Systems, the UK’s defence champion, and EADS, Europe’s biggest civil aerospace group, while investors accused BAE of having a muddled strategy that threatened shareholder value. 
An opinion piece in the Economist blames it on Germany (EADS ownership is complex; a large portion is controlled by Daimler).  And, the BBC has a very nice summary of the whole deal.

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

A Look at the Most Contaminated Place on Earth

Ran across this discussion of pollution issues in the former USSR (or, now, Russia).

Lake Karachay, Mayak, and Chelyabinsk-40: A Look at the Most Contaminated Place on Earth


Here's a map.

Truly chilling.

The reason I'm linking this is because so many of the other articles here are fascinating:

Norilsk: The World’s Most Northerly (and Most Polluted) Major City

Mapping World Rankings in Various Sports

List of Global Brands Keeps Coke on Top, and Apple Jumps Up

 

From the New York Times:

List of Global Brands Keeps Coke on Top, and Apple Jumps Up

Just a quick thought or so --

The sidebar to the left shows the 2012, 2011 and 2010.  Note that Apple jumped way up and Nokia fell like the proverbial rock.

If you go to the actual survey (link in the NYT article and here), you'll notice the presence of a number of luxury brands:

17.  Louis Vuitton
38.  Gucci
63.  Hermés
68.  Cartier (here's the Cartier commercial from the evening class)
70. Tiffany & Co.
84.  Prada

Remember where the growth for these brands is?  If you said China, you'd be right. 

Gucci on growth in China (video)

China’s rich feeds luxury brands and tourism in Europe

The Top 50 Most-Searched for Luxury Brands in China.

That is all.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Divided by a Common Language

"England and America are two countries divided by a common language."

Nobody is really quite sure who said this.  Some say it was Winston Churchill, others attribute it to Oscar Wilde.  Most sources I've found give George Bernard Shaw credit, though there's no written documentation of Shaw's having said this.  But, he could have.

While looking this morning for background material on Egypt (which will be part 3 of the CIVETS series), I found an article on the BBC entitled "Britishisms and the Britishisation of American English."  That ended up as a lost hour......

One of the points of particular interest in this article is that, when Americans (USAians ?) use specific Britishisms ((such as "colour" for "color" or "centre" for "center"), that they don't come across as sophisticated, just pretentious.

Picture from Memphis Flyer


The BBC article linked to this page (Not One-Off Britishisms).  I thought I'd read the first few entries, but got totally sucked in.  The author here also skewers the pretentiousness of some US uses of British idioms, but makes an additional point, which is that language in the US is enriched by the addition of British words and phrases for which there is no specific American equivalent.  One I am particularly fond of is the verb "to vet," meaning "to look into," with the implications of determining a person's suitability for a position and of digging for the dirt before the opposition can do so.

Example #1
Example #2

Then, there's my new favourite British news source, The Guardian.  One of their columnists decided to tackle the subject of British English vs. US English. The article is interesting, but the comments are even better.  Some people take their language very seriously.  Other commenters drifted down the byways of Spanish Spanish vs. Cuban Spanish.....

Then, just to make things Even More Complicated, remember that it's not just US English and British English.
This is enough.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Amazon adding lockers for customers at 7-Elevens and drug stores


Andrew (from the evening class) passed this along:
 
 
Also....
 
 
So, would you be interested?
 
 

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

CIVETS, Part 2 (South Africa)

We're not going in strict order here; South Africa is actually the last on the CIVETS list.

In general, we're all a lot more positive about Africa these days.  Article after article after article talks about Africa's vast untapped consumer market, a growing middle class (incomes between $2 and $20 per day) now able to afford more -- life insuranceDanone yogurt, basmati rice (imported from India),Heineken-brewed cassava beer and cosmetics from Avon, all paid for with mobile banking.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Exams in MGMT 320

The evening class has an exam tonight; the day class has an exam Wednesday.

For the evening class --
  1. I sometimes have problems in keeping Columbia and Venezuela straight on the map. I hope you don't.
  2. Was Adam Smith a mercantilist?
For the day class --
  1. Fortune global 500 companies, including the largest employers
  2. Think about languages; what ones are most useful to know?

"Stuff"

The next installments on the CIVETS should be up tomorrow, but in the meantime, look at this Chinese photographer's project to take pictures of people and all of their possessions.  The New York Times article's comments pointed out that photographer Peter Menzel did the same thing twenty years ago.....

See some of his pictures from Material World here..  A follow-up book, Hungry Planet, looked at what people eatWomen in the Material World moved beyond possessions and food to look at women's experiences overall (this is, I believe, a chapter from that book).

Monday, September 17, 2012

The CIVETS are coming. Meow?



A civet looks out of undergrowth.
Picture from http://www.cdc.gov/animalimportation/civets.html


"Meow" might be the wrong word here, since a civet isn't (technically speaking) a cat.

It's actually a member of the same order (Carnivora) as both cats and dogs, but the civets belong to the Viverridae family (as opposed to cats, whose family is Felidae).  I know you really needed to know that. 

It it worth noting, though, that the civet's natural range is in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia.

Ok.  The CIVETS countries are:

Columbia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Egypt
Turkey
South Africa

So, the theme for this week is the CIVETS, one country at a time.

First of all, the term CIVETS was invented (by British bank HSBC) as a follow-up to the BRIC grouping.  Not the Big Economies, but the smaller, "second generation emerging markets characterized by dynamic, rapidly changing economies and young, growing populations."

It's become fairly common usage; for example, there's a S & P CIVETS Index
 
One article did say that CIVETS is an artificial cluster, unlike BRIC, which really were set to be the next Big Economies.  As one writer put it, "It sort of makes you wonder if Vietnam was added to provide a needed letter."

In any case, artificial or not, let's look at the CIVETS.

Columbia

The first CIVET is Columbia.  How does it look on the numbers?

Columbia's GDP is in the $4 billion neighborhood (#29 world-wide), and growing at 5.9% (2011).  Where is this GDP coming from?  According to one source (the source for all other numbers not otherwise attributed), Columbia's major exports are petroleum, coal, emeralds, coffee, nickel, cut flowers, bananas, and apparel.  In other words, its economy is based on natural resources, agriculture, and (in last place), low-tech manufacturing.

Moreover, Columbia does not appear to be investing in their future.  Gross fixed investment (in income-producing assets) is at 23% of GDP.  To put this in perspective, Belarus is spending almost 40%, Vietnam almost 35%.

I can't determine whether or not there's capital flight going on here (which is what Argentina's been battling for years), but I did find one article talking about FDI flowing out of Columbia -- $20 billion from 200 to 2010.

Official sources claim that FDI flowing into Columbia is increasing, but even that source admits that most of the FDI is coming from oil and mining.

What does your future economy look like?  What are you investing today?

So maybe it's the demographics.  Median age is 28.3 years.  That's right in the ballpark for developing economies (for example, Indonesia is 28.5 years, Brazil is 29.6 years).  This is ok, but nothing special.

Columbia's population is 75% urbanized, which matters, because urban residents shop more, driving domestic consumption (for a discussion of this phenomenon in China, see this report).  Again, not bad.  Indonesia's 44% urbanized, Peru's at 77%.

If the CIVETS are the economies of the future, what else is being done to invest in that future.  Literacy is 90.4% and average educational attainment is 14 years.  Public spending on education is 4.7% (World Bank numbers), which puts Columbia right in line with Nepal (4.7%) and Rwanda (5%).  In contrast, (and more to the point), Brazil spends 5.7% and Costa Rica is at 6.3%.  You'd think that if you were interested in economic growth, you'd invest in education.   Columbia isn't really low, but nor is it inordinately high.

So, then, why Columbia?  Per the Wall Street Journal:

Colombia is emerging as an attractive destination for investors. Improved security measures have led to a 90% decline in kidnappings and a 46% drop in the murder rate over the past decade...


A 90% decline in kidnappings.  I don't want to joke about what is a serious issue, but that doesn't strike me as the strongest recommendation out there.

Another source cites Columbia's "pro-business government."  Well, governments change.

During the 1990s, foreign investment was pouring into Argentina, under the government of President Carlos Menem (1989-1999).  That slowed in the Argentine financial crisis in the late 1990s, and under current president Cristina Fernández , nationalization is the order of the day.

And, Columbia has some internal governance issues.  President Santos is currently preparing for Formal Diplomatic Talks with an outfit called FARC (The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia). FARC is politically left-wing and has long financed their operations by kidnapping and drug trafficking (though they claim to have given up kidnapping for ransom).

So, than, why not Venezuela?  The numbers are comparable or better (economic and demographic). 

Venezuela already exports oil; Columbia is in the beginning stages.  And, by the way, FARC just loves to take out oil pipelines....

Our problem with Venezuela -- Hugo Chávez.  However, as we've said, governments change, and we know (or suspect) that  Mr. Chávez is probably not too much longer for this world (though nobody knows for sure).

So am I dismissing Columbia?  No.  Just that there are other attractive Latin American countries in addition to Columbia.  Brazil we aren't counting here as up-and-coming, but I've also heard positive reports about Panama and Costa Rica.  Smaller countries, smaller economies than Columbia, but with growth potential.

Next up....South Africa.

Friday, September 14, 2012

"More saving. More doing." But, "nothing doing" in China.

From today's Financial Times -- Home Depot Shuts Big Box Stores in China.

According to the article, Chinese customers are less likely to be interested in do-it-yourself (DIY) home improvements (since many workers are migrant workers).  But, reasons don't matter.  Chinese consumers aren't just that into DIY.

According to Home Depot:
"Closing stores is always a difficult decision," said chairman & CEO, The Home Depot. "We are thankful for the dedicated service of our store associates in China, and we wish them all the best during this transition."

While it is closing its big box stores, The Home Depot is maintaining a new formats team to continue research and development activities. In addition, the Company is maintaining two recently-opened specialty stores - a paint and flooring store and a Home Decorators Collection store, both located in - and is in the beginning stages of developing relationships with several of China's leading e-commerce websites, a combination which the Company believes is more tailored to Chinese customers' needs and shopping preferences.

"We've learned a great deal over the last six years in China, and our new approach leverages that experience and reflects our continuing interest in providing value to Chinese customers, as well as our shareholders," said Blake.
 
My favorite part is the last paragraph. "Our new approach leverages that experience..."  Where I come from, they call that "learning from your mistakes."  But, I do loathe and despise business buzzwords.

That is all for today.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Back to Black?

In both 320 sections, we've recently been talking about bribery, with some reference to the 2003-2006 scandal involving BAE Systems (British Aerospace Engineering) and Saudi Arabia, with a supporting cast of a large flock of fighter jets, a pink airplane, a peacock-blue Rolls-Royce, and numerous sports cars.

Although there was some speculation that BAE chairman Sir Dick Evans and his high degree of cross-cultural awareness played a part in securing the Saudi contract.

Well, BAE is in the news again.  There's a proposed merger between BAE and EADS (European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company).  Per the Financial Times:
Both companies are aiming to reach an agreement by October 10, according to two people familiar with the deal talks. BAE and EADS executives wanted to decide “whether this thing will fly or not” by that date, although the deadline could be pushed back if necessary, one of these people said.


Some Background

Both companies are defence contractors (that is, weapons manufacturers), although only about a third of EADS revenues are military (EADS includes Airbus, which is civilian aircraft).

The Economist quick update on the arms business

EADS is a Dutch company, with a complex ownership structure that includes the German, French and Spanish governments and Daimler and worldwide operations (including China and Brazil). 

BAE is British owned and  deals primarily with the UK and other English-speaking countries (US and Australia), with significant interests in India and Saudi Arabia.

The Merger

According, again, to the Financial Times, the motivation behind this is mutual benefit.  BAE has a significant presence in the US defence market (which is almost half of the world's defence spending), allowing the EADS / BAE combination to take on Boeing.  And, if military markets dry up (though plans would be to expand into additional lines of military hardware), EADS has Airbus, which is civilian aircraft.

However, nobody else -- shareholders, governments, employees, labor unions, and the lady that pushes the food trolley on the Hogwarts Express -- likes the idea.

More later....

The US Reaction

Here's the New York Times coverage; from the comments, it appears that US observers are worried about the potential power and size of the mergerd firm.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Why Ireland ?

The short 60 Minutes clip we watched today gave the impression that US high-tech and pharmaceutical companies had located facilities in Ireland just because of US corporate taxes.  And, as you were leaving, I recall saying that there's more to it than that.  Well, there is more to it than just taxes.

I did a little investigation and found out that:
  • Yes, there is a 10% corporate tax rate
  • In the early 2000's, Ireland passed a number of "technology-friendly" laws (such as digital signatures).
  • Ireland is the only English-speaking euro-zone country
  • General government pro-business attitude
  • High quality workforce
And, Ireland has become a major location for pharmaceutical companies, including firms from places other than the US, including Switzerland.  The Irish government has put a good deal of money into making Ireland attractive, including $80 million + into higher education and research in biotech

Pharmaceuticals in Ireland is a perfect example of Michael Porter's clusters (the evening class talked about this Monday night and the day class will get here in early October).  For even more details, refer to this report from Deutsche Bank.


Oh, and Cisco?  It really isn't just about the taxes.  A few recent examples:

Cisco announces 115 Galway jobs (April 2012)
Tech giant Cisco to expand Irish operation (January 2012)

Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Some interesting reading

I ran across this today, from the (UK) Financial Times.  It's a blog dedicated to what we call "emerging markets" or "poorer countries."

Remeber that shorthand here -- BRIC, or Brazil, Russia, India and China, or the economies of the 21st century.

A few interesting posts:

Sina and Tencent: dark clouds and silver linings (microblogging in China).  Also, the Economist article on why Chinese and Japanese are such good languages for microblogging.

Filling a Gap in South Africa (clothing retailing)

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

"Avon Calling"

Avon, at one time perhaps the best known of the direct-sales companies, has fallen on hard times.

According to one article:

Avon Products Inc reported weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results as sales slid in every market except Latin America and the company saw a 3 percent drop in the number of representatives who sell its cosmetics directly to consumers.

This reflects drops in sales overall.  Of interest is that only about 20% of their sales (per the 2010 annual report) are from North America.  Two of their biggest markets -- Brazil and Russia (as per the annual report) are markets where Avon has taken a hit.

In the case of Brazil, Avon claims that computer problems (specifically, a "legacy system") are the reason for the sales drop there.  Shouldn't Avon have anticipated problems with an outdated computer system and addressed that much earlier?

In the case of Russia, Avon blames "agressive pricing" from competitors.  Ok.  You compete on one of two things -- price or quality.  If Avon isn't the cheapest brand, should they not position themselves as at least a brand of choice?  Could be on product quality, customer service, whatever, but something that will convince Russian women that, while Avon may not be the least expensive, it's the best value for the money.

It's something to remember.  A company can make a lot of mistakes in going international -- ignoring cultural differences, etc. -- but it's also possible to do things right in the international sense and still just not do a good job of running a business.

Maybe this is why Avon CEO Andrea Jung is looking for a new job.

Monday, February 06, 2012

Mexico party selects first woman presidential candidate (via BBC)

The Mexican voters choose a new president in July of this year (when the US political parties are just settling on their nominees). 

Current president Felipe Calderón is not eligible for a second term (Mexico's presidents are limited to a single six-year term).  He chose as his successor Ernesto Cordero (who was, up until September of 2011, the finance minister).

However, the PAN (National Action Party) did not agree, and chose a different candidate.  The current nominee of the PAN is Josefina Vazquez Mota , who was formerly the education minister. 

According to the BBC, though:
Opinion polls place her some distance behind the current frontrunner, Enrique Pena Nieto, the candidate of the party which ruled Mexico for more than 70 years, the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party).  
And, it is most likely that the next president will be Enrique Peña Nieto from the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party). 
The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled Mexico for 71 years until 2000, leads the pack and looks set to return under the slick candidacy of Enrique Peña Nieto, a former governor of Mexico’s most populous state.  
However, there’s been some corruption corruption associated with Mr. Peña Nieto:  
It was a mere $1.8 million, stuffed as brand new bills into two suitcases on a small jet travelling from the drug-raddled state of Veracruz to the home town of the man likely to be Mexico's next president.  Suspicious? Officers from Mexico's Attorney-General's office confiscated the money last weekend during a search of the plane, which landed in Toluca, capital of the state of Mexico. They arrested the two men transporting the cash, who said they were Veracruz officials but could not present any paperwork on where the money came from.  As rumours and speculation swirled, officials in the government of Veracruz acknowledged the money (25 million pesos) was theirs. They said they'd sent it to a publicity agency to pay for promotions for a carnival.  

It happens in the US, too.

It happens in France.

It happens in Australia.

It happens in the UK, though it's been illegal since 1275...

AND because Elections ought to be free, the King commandeth upon great Forfeiture, that [no Man] by Force of Arms, nor by Malice, or menacing, shall disturb any to make free Election.

Thursday, February 02, 2012

NYSE Euronext merger with Deutsche Boerse blocked by EU (BBC News)

This is a very appropriate news item, for us at least. On the agenda for tomorrow (Friday) is a discussion of economic and legal systems.

Today's business climate is one of mergers and acquisitions, though those mergers don't always meet with the approval of governments interested in enforcing antitrust laws (see here for a brief refresher on antitrust).

In class, we'll take a look at Microsoft and their troubles in the EU.

The BBC article deals with a proposed merger that's been going on for a while now. Like a lot of these, it goes beyond the merely complex.

NYSE Euronext is a merger (dating back to 2007 or so) of the New York Stock Exchange and Euronext, which was itself a merger of a number of European exchanges (not, however, including either London or Frankfort).

At one point, Deutsche Börse (Germany, based in Frankfort) wanted to buy Euronext, but was beaten out by the NYSE.

So, in early 2011, Deutsche Börse decided that they were going to acquire NYSE Euronext. At the time, the expectation was that the merger would happen fairly quickly. Per a Wall Street Journal article from a year ago:




A deal could be announced as early as next week, according to people familiar with the situation, though a host of regulatory challenges await on both sides of the Atlantic, according to competition experts.
Well, the deal isn't going to go through. The European Commission announced yesterday that the merger would violate EU antitrust provisions.

But, the US didn't have a problem with the merger, approving it in December of 2011.

The difference between the EU and the US is that EU regulators appear to be somewhat more aggressive in their enforcement of antitrust. For example:



The day after blocking the merger of NYSE Euronext (NYX) and Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1), the European Union’s antitrust chief vowed to veto other deals that hamper competition. The EU will continue to block deals “whenever necessary,”
Joaquin Almunia said in prepared remarks for a speech in Brussels today.

So, what does this all mean? There will most likely be additional consolidations in the world's markets; the London Metal Exchange is looking to be bought out soon. It does mean that, as a company looking to raise money in the equities market, that there'll be less choice as to where to list one's stock. Does that matter? In reading through the EU's press release on the NYSE Euronext / Deutsche Börse merger, they keep saying "competition is good," but it's not clear just why competition among financial marketplaces is a good thing.

Ok. Having nothing else to do, I decided to see if I could find out why. What I found was a very long and complex paper written by academic economists in 1998. I ran out of steam on about page 6 (out of 50), but if I'm reading this right, there's no good economic reason for a lot of competition. Also, prior to a single European currency and increased cross-border ownership of securtities, most world exchanges were already monopolies within their countries:



The presence of many exchanges in reality is not incompatible with this view, as exchanges were not competing with one another, at least in Europe, until a decade ago, due to different regulations and currencies that let them be monopolist in their relevant markets. In fact, in each country, either only one exchange existed or only one was dominant and absorbed the small regional ones (as in France, Italy, Spain, and Germany).
Today's story has been widely reported, but the more I think about it, the impact on businesses in general will most likely be a limited one. It's still an interesting story, especially when you look at the history behind it.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Some Sources for Your Expatriate Paper

Just links, no commentary

General
http://www.kpmg.com/global/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/pages/the-expatriate-administrator.aspx

http://travel.state.gov/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatlife/

http://www.talesmag.com/

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123926101221104491.html

http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver

Asia
http://www.chinalawblog.com/2010/03/expat_health_insurance_in_chin.html

Europe
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/expathealth/7499053/Expat-guide-to-Spain-health-care.html

Aging Japan

According to an article in yesterday's Washington Post, Japan is undergoing a demographic crisis:







Japan’s population of 128 million will shrink by one-third and seniors will account for 40 percent of people by 2060, placing a greater burden on a smaller working-age population to support the social security and tax systems.




The article goes on to say that, by 2060, the retired (that is, not working) proportion of the population will reach 40%. The Japanese government is proposing tax increases to fund these looming pension liabilities, but faces parlimentary opposition in doing so. And, the standard retirement age is 60.



It isn't just an issue of money, though. The number of nursing homes and the avialability of caretakers are an issue as well. It's to the point where the Japanese are developing robots that can move patients, help the elderly dress, and, most frighteningly of all, provide companionship:







Scientists have invented therapeutic robotic babies that are intended to make life easier for nursing home residents. These Babyloids are being tested in facilities across Japan. During the tests, residents interact with the robots in eight-minute intervals for a total of 90 minutes each day. Designed to resemble infants, these robots simulate human emotions such as crying. This in turn tends to trigger a response among actual people. So far, the Babyloids are showing early promise at reducing depression and despair among residents.




And, this is in a retiree population that, having lost the personal ties from work, is already lonely.




There is, though an argument that the falling birthrate in Japan is an unintended consequence of a deliberate and rational decision on the part of the Japanese. To quote at length from the New York Times:







Take, for instance, how Western observers have viewed Japan’s demographics. The population is getting older because of a low birthrate, a characteristic Japan shares with many of the world’s richest nations. Yet this is presented not only as a critical problem but as a policy failure. It never seems to occur to Western commentators that the Japanese both individually and collectively have chosen their demographic fate — and have good reasons for doing so.




The story begins in the terrible winter of 1945-6, when, newly bereft of their empire, the Japanese nearly starved to death. With overseas expansion no longer an option, Japanese leaders determined as a top priority to cut the birthrate. Thereafter a culture of small families set in that has continued to the present day.




Japan’s motivation is clear: food security. With only about one-third as much arable land per capita as China, Japan has long been the world’s largest net food importer. While the birth control policy is the primary cause of Japan’s aging demographics, the phenomenon also reflects improved health care and an increase of more than 20 years in life expectancy since 1950.




The demographic trends in the EU and the US are not dissimilar. However, the participation of women in the paid labor force in the EU has room to increase, and in both the US and the EU, immigration (documented or otherwise) is another safety valve.




Despite the problems of issues in Japan, I'd rather be old in Japan than in China, where for all but the very rich, "nursing home" translates as "snake pit" or "hellhole."

Monday, January 30, 2012

Russia's Future (or at least guesses about it)

Russia. Over the last few weeks, we've seen a fair amount of discussion as to Vladimir Putin's political future.

A brief recap. Mr. Putin served two terms as President of Russia (2000-2008). In the Russian system, the President is the one with the power and the Prime Minister is a figurehead. However, when Mr. Putin finished his second term in 2008, he was not eligible for re-election, so the new President was Dmitry Medvedev. Mr. Putin moved to the office of Prime Minister, but it's been pretty generally accepted that it's Mr. Medvedev who is the true figurehead here.

The current Russian constitution prohibits two consecutive terms, but additional non-consecutive terms are fine. So, Mr. Putin is running for re-election as President this year. Mr. Medvedev's future is unknown but not likely to be a glowing one. According to the Moscow Times,




As for Medvedev — who at one point was branded with the tag "pitiful" on Twitter — analysts said his political future is anything but certain. "President Dmitry Medvedev is worse than a lame duck, he's a dead duck," said Nikolai Petrov, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Ok. Back to Mr. Putin. At one point, he looked like a sure thing for re-election. However, he's lost a lot of popularity recently. This week-end there were protests in Moscow (the symbol appears to be white ribbons or balloons). But, this sentiment in Moscow and among the bloggers does not appear to be universal. Mr. Putin doesn't have any credible opposition, and he's at least a known quantity. Per the New York Times,




“Tell Putin to fulfill all of his promises, not just half of them,” said Sergei V. Verkhososov, 34, a mechanic from the nearby industrial town of Nizhny Tagil, who was bused in for the afternoon by his employer. “He needs to think about the future, and those people who fought for him. Take these words to him.”

.......

“In Moscow they insulted me, they insulted everyone who works honestly for the sake of the motherland,” Igor Kholmansky, a worker at a plant that makes train cars and tanks, said from the stage. “We came here today to say that the workers of the Urals are for stability, for Putin and for Russia.”


There does seem to be little question (right now, at least) that Mr. Putin will win re-election, though he's unlikely to regain the popularity from his first two terms. Bear in mind two things. First, Russia has a tradition of autocratic leadership. As an autocrat, Mr. Putin is following right in the footsteps of Ivan the Terrible and Josef Stalin. Second. It may be an urban legend, but the same Josef Stalin is popularly quoted as saying "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes."

As a commentator for Forbes put it, Mr. Putin will be re-elected, but let's not mistake this for democracy:



His December 15 response to charges of corruption displays his chutzpah. The Russian people do not need democracy, he assured viewers. He (purportedly among the world’s richest men) personally will ferret out and punish those who are corrupt. As an example, he accused a former cabinet member – now a lonely member of the opposition — of corruption.

In a remarkable display of double-talk, Putin dismissed bloggers and demonstrators: “If the people show their trust in me with the highest office of president, I will conditionally work in their interests. Whether I have this trust or not is not revealed on internet sites or demonstrations. In a democratic society, trust is shown only in voting. If I see that there is not such support I would not stay one day longer in office (polite applause).”

Mr. Putin faces a number of challeneges in his third term (assuming that you, too, read "challlenge" as "a big problem that nobody knows how to solve, so it's dumped on your lap"). First, there's Russia's economic future. Recently, Mr. Putin announced that he believes that Russia's economic future depends on taking the currency earned from oil and gas exports and using that to build a modern economy. In an article, written by Mr Putin and published this past weekend (and much commented on), he says:




Noting that “more than a quarter of Russia’s GDP is a result of the sale of gas, oil, metals, timber and other natural resources or primary commodities,” Putin admitted that “Russia depends on the world economy…more than most other countries do.”

..........

“Having an economy that does not guarantee stability, sovereignty, or decent prosperity is unacceptable for Russia,” Putin wrote. “We need a new economy with a competitive industrial sector and infrastructure, with a developed service industry and with an effective agricultural sector – an economy, operating on a modern technological base.”

The second issue, perhaps not as urgent, is the nationalities question. Russia contains a large number of people who are not ethnically Russian and not necessarily happy at being part of Russia (such as the Chechens). The Russians aren't always absolutely delighted, either.

Ok. Enough for now.