According to an article in yesterday's Washington Post, Japan is undergoing a demographic crisis:
Japan’s population of 128 million will shrink by one-third and seniors will account for 40 percent of people by 2060, placing a greater burden on a smaller working-age population to support the social security and tax systems.
The article goes on to say that, by 2060, the retired (that is, not working) proportion of the population will reach 40%. The Japanese government is proposing tax increases to fund these looming pension liabilities, but faces parlimentary opposition in doing so. And, the standard retirement age is 60.
It isn't just an issue of money, though. The number of nursing homes and the avialability of caretakers are an issue as well. It's to the point where the Japanese are developing robots that can move patients, help the elderly dress, and, most frighteningly of all, provide companionship:
Scientists have invented therapeutic robotic babies that are intended to make life easier for nursing home residents. These Babyloids are being tested in facilities across Japan. During the tests, residents interact with the robots in eight-minute intervals for a total of 90 minutes each day. Designed to resemble infants, these robots simulate human emotions such as crying. This in turn tends to trigger a response among actual people. So far, the Babyloids are showing early promise at reducing depression and despair among residents.
And, this is in a retiree population that, having lost the personal ties from work, is already lonely.
There is, though an argument that the falling birthrate in Japan is an unintended consequence of a deliberate and rational decision on the part of the Japanese. To quote at length from the New York Times:
Take, for instance, how Western observers have viewed Japan’s demographics. The population is getting older because of a low birthrate, a characteristic Japan shares with many of the world’s richest nations. Yet this is presented not only as a critical problem but as a policy failure. It never seems to occur to Western commentators that the Japanese both individually and collectively have chosen their demographic fate — and have good reasons for doing so.
The story begins in the terrible winter of 1945-6, when, newly bereft of their empire, the Japanese nearly starved to death. With overseas expansion no longer an option, Japanese leaders determined as a top priority to cut the birthrate. Thereafter a culture of small families set in that has continued to the present day.
Japan’s motivation is clear: food security. With only about one-third as much arable land per capita as China, Japan has long been the world’s largest net food importer. While the birth control policy is the primary cause of Japan’s aging demographics, the phenomenon also reflects improved health care and an increase of more than 20 years in life expectancy since 1950.
The demographic trends in the EU and the US are not dissimilar. However, the participation of women in the paid labor force in the EU has room to increase, and in both the US and the EU, immigration (documented or otherwise) is another safety valve.
Despite the problems of issues in Japan, I'd rather be old in Japan than in China, where for all but the very rich, "nursing home" translates as "snake pit" or "hellhole."
