Russia's Future (or at least guesses about it)

Russia. Over the last few weeks, we've seen a fair amount of discussion as to Vladimir Putin's political future.

A brief recap. Mr. Putin served two terms as President of Russia (2000-2008). In the Russian system, the President is the one with the power and the Prime Minister is a figurehead. However, when Mr. Putin finished his second term in 2008, he was not eligible for re-election, so the new President was Dmitry Medvedev. Mr. Putin moved to the office of Prime Minister, but it's been pretty generally accepted that it's Mr. Medvedev who is the true figurehead here.

The current Russian constitution prohibits two consecutive terms, but additional non-consecutive terms are fine. So, Mr. Putin is running for re-election as President this year. Mr. Medvedev's future is unknown but not likely to be a glowing one. According to the Moscow Times,

As for Medvedev — who at one point was branded with the tag "pitiful" on Twitter — analysts said his political future is anything but certain. "President Dmitry Medvedev is worse than a lame duck, he's a dead duck," said Nikolai Petrov, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Ok. Back to Mr. Putin. At one point, he looked like a sure thing for re-election. However, he's lost a lot of popularity recently. This week-end there were protests in Moscow (the symbol appears to be white ribbons or balloons). But, this sentiment in Moscow and among the bloggers does not appear to be universal. Mr. Putin doesn't have any credible opposition, and he's at least a known quantity. Per the New York Times,

“Tell Putin to fulfill all of his promises, not just half of them,” said Sergei V. Verkhososov, 34, a mechanic from the nearby industrial town of Nizhny Tagil, who was bused in for the afternoon by his employer. “He needs to think about the future, and those people who fought for him. Take these words to him.”

.......

“In Moscow they insulted me, they insulted everyone who works honestly for the sake of the motherland,” Igor Kholmansky, a worker at a plant that makes train cars and tanks, said from the stage. “We came here today to say that the workers of the Urals are for stability, for Putin and for Russia.”

There does seem to be little question (right now, at least) that Mr. Putin will win re-election, though he's unlikely to regain the popularity from his first two terms. Bear in mind two things. First, Russia has a tradition of autocratic leadership. As an autocrat, Mr. Putin is following right in the footsteps of Ivan the Terrible and Josef Stalin. Second. It may be an urban legend, but the same Josef Stalin is popularly quoted as saying "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes."

As a commentator for Forbes put it, Mr. Putin will be re-elected, but let's not mistake this for democracy:

His December 15 response to charges of corruption displays his chutzpah. The Russian people do not need democracy, he assured viewers. He (purportedly among the world’s richest men) personally will ferret out and punish those who are corrupt. As an example, he accused a former cabinet member – now a lonely member of the opposition — of corruption.

In a remarkable display of double-talk, Putin dismissed bloggers and demonstrators: “If the people show their trust in me with the highest office of president, I will conditionally work in their interests. Whether I have this trust or not is not revealed on internet sites or demonstrations. In a democratic society, trust is shown only in voting. If I see that there is not such support I would not stay one day longer in office (polite applause).”

Mr. Putin faces a number of challeneges in his third term (assuming that you, too, read "challlenge" as "a big problem that nobody knows how to solve, so it's dumped on your lap"). First, there's Russia's economic future. Recently, Mr. Putin announced that he believes that Russia's economic future depends on taking the currency earned from oil and gas exports and using that to build a modern economy. In an article, written by Mr Putin and published this past weekend (and much commented on), he says:

Noting that “more than a quarter of Russia’s GDP is a result of the sale of gas, oil, metals, timber and other natural resources or primary commodities,” Putin admitted that “Russia depends on the world economy…more than most other countries do.”

..........

“Having an economy that does not guarantee stability, sovereignty, or decent prosperity is unacceptable for Russia,” Putin wrote. “We need a new economy with a competitive industrial sector and infrastructure, with a developed service industry and with an effective agricultural sector – an economy, operating on a modern technological base.”

The second issue, perhaps not as urgent, is the nationalities question. Russia contains a large number of people who are not ethnically Russian and not necessarily happy at being part of Russia (such as the Chechens). The Russians aren't always absolutely delighted, either.

Ok. Enough for now.

New Trial Begins for Jailed Russian Tycoon

Mikhail Khodorkovsky's trial opened today in Moscow, though it's not entirely clear what the purpose of the trial is. No, actually, the purpose is quite clear. Khodorkovsky was formerly the head of the Russian oil company Yukos. And,

Khodorkovsky, at one point estimated by Forbes magazine to hold a $15 billion fortune, built Yukos into Russia's largest oil company and defied the Kremlin by publicly criticizing its policies and lending financial support to opposition groups critical of then-President Vladimir Putin.

That puts it all together, doesn't it?

Khodorkovsky was originally arrested in 2003 on charges of tax evasion (shocking, isn't it?), tried and sentenced, in 2005, to a nine year prison term, to be served in Siberia (a long Russian tradition). He's been brought back to Moscow to face additional charges, presumably to ensure that he stays in Siberia permanently, where he can work in the prison garment factory.

If you's like to show your support for Mr. Khodorkovsky, you can visit his webpage, though you'll need to speak Russian to do so (sorry, there is an English version).

More on Mr. Khodorkovsky from Frontline

Nowegian Election Results

As we discussed last night in International, Scandinavian values are a bit different from ours. Specifically, there's a very strong sense that nobody should be in need. The result -- a social safety net that includes free education, health care, etc [this is the article Ashley was referring to]

This is, in part, financed from Norway's oil revenues (they're the world's 3d largest exporter of oil), but you'll find the same philosophy and similar programs in the rest of Scandinavia. As we discussed last night, this is different. Not better, not worse, just different. Remember that this social welfare system is funded by tax revenues, and Norwegian tax rates are very high.

The election.

Centre-Left Bloc Wins Norway Poll

The right-center party, under Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik, lost to the left-center Labor Party, led by Jens Stoltenberg. It wasn't an issue of safety-net vs. no safety-net, just how far the social welfare system should go

In the news coverage, pay attention to the references to "blocs" -- specifically, neither Labor nor the Christian People's Pary can form a government unless they form a coalition with one or more minority parties.

One factor that didn't come into the elections was EU membership; Norwegian voters have rejected membership, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of sentiment for joining. In fact, Norway gets a lot of the benefits of EU membership (more on that in a couple of weeks), withough having to give up control over fishing rights. A 2004 article from The Economist, though, sees the matter somewhat differently:

The Norwegian Option

Your thoughts?

China and Oil

Ok. The last question I asked you Monday night was this -- where is China going to get the oil needed to fuel (so to speak) its economic growth? They don't produce it themselves. There's oil in Iraq, there's oil in North Central Asia. But, there's lots of folks who want this oil -- the US and Europe, for one; India is also in the market.

China and India Vie for Kazakhstan Oil (8/16)
China Ups the Ante in Its Bid for Oil (8/22)
Uncertain Saudi Supplies Hold Key to China (8/23)

So, is everything gloom-and-doom? Not necessarily. One of the world's 5 most populous countries (China, India, Brazil, and the US being the others) has found an alternative.

Homegrown Fuel Supply Helps Brazil Breathe Easy (6/15)

Your thoughts ??????